The Death of GOOFI?
Nov 11, 2022, 2:00 AM
IS SILLY THE SHARK TO GOOFI’S GUPPY? The Rise and Fall of GOOFI; A SILLY tale of love, betrayal, and murder.
Polls Are Wrong: Cope
Nov 5, 2022, 2:41 AM
Pollsters SEETHE
How precise are the win probabilities?
Nov 5, 2022, 1:22 AM
An analysis of how varying constants in the variance calculation affects the model results
Exclude Bigmood?
Nov 5, 2022, 1:21 AM
Analyzing the effects of including and excluding Bigmood in our model
Did Democrat meddling have an impact on Republican primaries?
Nov 4, 2022, 10:45 PM
After the 2020 presidential election, the Democratic Party spent millions of dollars boosting the campaigns of radical GOP candidates who were deemed as more beatable. Did it work?
Comparing ORACLE to 538 🐦
Nov 4, 2022, 5:08 PM
In this post, we are putting our methodology to the test and seeing how a group of high-school students measure up to a multimillion dollar company :)
D's get degrees
Nov 4, 2022, 4:28 PM
Exploring how different poll grades affect election predictions.
MOIST: Midterm Oracle with Internet Search Trends
Nov 4, 2022, 1:39 PM
Factoring in Google search trends as a source of variance
How does a Trump endorsement affect a candidate's likelihood of winning?
Nov 4, 2022, 12:16 PM
We analyze whether or not Trump-endorsed candidates perform differently than non-Trump-endorsed candidates
Hindsight is 2018
Nov 3, 2022, 5:00 PM
Testing our correlation model on the 2018 Senate elections
HEPA - Historical Error Poll Adjustment
Nov 3, 2022, 1:51 PM
A method of accounting polling biases
Why is Blair ORACLE More Cautious Than Other Models?
Nov 3, 2022, 1:05 PM
Analyzing variance in popular models
BIPBLEEP - Blair Index of Partisanship Based on Less Early Election Priority
Nov 3, 2022, 2:00 AM
A recalculation of BPI with a higher weight to recent election
Is BIGMOOD a BIGLIE?
Nov 2, 2022, 5:00 PM
Considering the effect of BIGMOOD on governor races
Weight a second: How does changing our poll weight formula affect our model's predictions?
Nov 2, 2022, 4:00 PM
An analysis of the effect of adjusting weight given to polls when combining polling averages with BPI
Removing BPI and BABOON
Nov 1, 2022, 12:00 PM
What would happen if we only used poll data for our predictions?
Welcome to ORACLE of Blair 2022
Oct 7, 2022, 12:52 PM
Modeling this year's senate & governor races