Oklahoma (special)
Senate race
| 32.93 | BPI |
|---|---|
| 41.82 | Poll avg. |
| Candidate | Predicted Vote % | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Kendra Horn | 40.4% | 11% |
| Markwayne Mullin | 59.6% | 89% |
About Oklahoma
Senator Jim Inholfe announced planned resignation at the end of the 117th US Congress, meaning Oklahoma is holding a special election to fill the remaining four years of his term on top of the regular election. In the special election, Republican Markwayne Mullin is running against Democrat Kendra Horn, with Libertarian Robert Murphy and independent Ray Woods participating.
Candidates
Kendra Horn (D)
Source: Ballotpedia
Markwayne Mullin (R)
Source: Ballotpedia
Kendra Horn was previously a member of the US House representing Oklahoma's 5th Congressional District, serving from 2019-2021.
Mullin is backed by Trump and is a current member of the House, holding office from 2013-present.
Primaries
For the special election, the Democratic primary election was canceled, and Kendra Horn advanced from the special Democratic primary.
The Republican primary was contested in favor of Mullin, who won 43.7% of the vote. The second-place position was contested, with T.W. Shannon winning 17.5% of the vote, and third place Nathan Dahm winning 11.9%.
Issues & controversies
Mullin is notably pro-life, and focuses on promoting conservative values. Kendra Horn places an emphasis on education, and seeks to provide universal healthcare access.
Campaign ads
Chance of winning over time
We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
Recent polls
Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.
lv
11/6/22
M. Horn
36.0%
Lankford
56.0%
Blevins
1.0%
Delaney
2.0%
K. Horn
41.0%
Mullin
53.0%
Murphy
1.0%
Woods
2.0%
lv
10/28/22
M. Horn
38.0%
Lankford
52.0%
Blevins
3.0%
Delaney
4.0%
K. Horn
41.0%
Mullin
52.0%
Murphy
2.0%
Woods
2.0%
lv
10/28/22
M. Horn
34.2%
Lankford
61.5%
Blevins
1.3%
Delaney
3.1%
K. Horn
36.3%
Mullin
58.9%
Murphy
1.0%
Woods
3.8%
lv
10/28/22
M. Horn
34.0%
Lankford
51.0%
Blevins
2.0%
Delaney
3.0%
K. Horn
41.0%
Mullin
47.0%
Murphy
2.0%
Woods
2.0%
lv
10/15/22
M. Horn
36.0%
Lankford
52.0%
Blevins
3.0%
Delaney
4.0%
K. Horn
39.0%
Mullin
52.0%
Murphy
3.0%
Woods
2.0%
lv
10/12/22
M. Horn
37.0%
Lankford
51.0%
Blevins
1.0%
Delaney
2.0%
K. Horn
39.0%
Mullin
50.0%
Murphy
0.0%
Woods
1.0%
lv
9/21/22
M. Horn
34.0%
Lankford
52.0%
Blevins
2.0%
Delaney
4.0%
K. Horn
39.0%
Mullin
50.0%
Murphy
3.0%
Woods
3.0%
lv
9/18/22
M. Horn
26.68%
Lankford
49.12%
Blevins
8.74%
Delaney
2.37%
K. Horn
37.09%
Mullin
49.17%
Murphy
4.12%
Woods
0.53%
lv
9/7/22
M. Horn
29.0%
Lankford
59.0%
K. Horn
28.0%
Mullin
58.0%