Oklahoma
Senate race
| 32.93 | BPI |
|---|---|
| 39.73 | Poll avg. |
| Candidate | Predicted Vote % | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Madison Horn | 38.7% | 8% |
| James Lankford | 61.3% | 92% |
About Oklahoma
Oklahoma is a notoriously red state with deep roots in Conservatism and ties to the Republican party. Senator Jim Inholfe announced planned resignation at the end of the 117th US Congress, meaning Oklahoma is holding a special election to fill the remaining four years of his term on top of the regular election. For the regular election, the incumbent Republican James Lankford is running against Democrat Madison Horn, with Libertarian Kenneth Blevins and independent Michael Delaney also participating.
Candidates
Madison Horn (D)
Source: Ballotpedia
James Lankford (R)
Source: Ballotpedia
Madison Horn is a self-described “conservative democrat” who has no prior political experience.
Lankford is endorsed by Trump, and has held office since 2015.Mullin is also backed by Trump, and is a current member of the House, holding office from 2013-present.
Primaries
The Democratic primary in Oklahoma for the regular election was contested, with Madison Horn winning 37.2% of the vote and the second-place candidate Jason Bollinger winning 16.8% of the vote. Ultimately, Horn won the runoff with 63.7% of the votes.
The Republican primary was uneventful, with James Lankford winning 67.8% of the vote.
Issues & controversies
Madison Horn focuses a lot on inflation. A significant amount of her advocacy revolves around the idea of empowering marginalized communities and the working class, along with proposing policies to combat growing inflation and rebuild supply chains. Lankford endorses 2nd amendment rights and seeks to empower American agriculture, while advocating for debt reduction.
Campaign ads
Chance of winning over time
We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
Recent polls
Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.
lv
11/6/22
M. Horn
36.0%
Lankford
56.0%
Blevins
1.0%
Delaney
2.0%
K. Horn
41.0%
Mullin
53.0%
Murphy
1.0%
Woods
2.0%
lv
10/28/22
M. Horn
38.0%
Lankford
52.0%
Blevins
3.0%
Delaney
4.0%
K. Horn
41.0%
Mullin
52.0%
Murphy
2.0%
Woods
2.0%
lv
10/28/22
M. Horn
34.2%
Lankford
61.5%
Blevins
1.3%
Delaney
3.1%
K. Horn
36.3%
Mullin
58.9%
Murphy
1.0%
Woods
3.8%
lv
10/28/22
M. Horn
34.0%
Lankford
51.0%
Blevins
2.0%
Delaney
3.0%
K. Horn
41.0%
Mullin
47.0%
Murphy
2.0%
Woods
2.0%
lv
10/15/22
M. Horn
36.0%
Lankford
52.0%
Blevins
3.0%
Delaney
4.0%
K. Horn
39.0%
Mullin
52.0%
Murphy
3.0%
Woods
2.0%
lv
10/12/22
M. Horn
37.0%
Lankford
51.0%
Blevins
1.0%
Delaney
2.0%
K. Horn
39.0%
Mullin
50.0%
Murphy
0.0%
Woods
1.0%
lv
9/21/22
M. Horn
34.0%
Lankford
52.0%
Blevins
2.0%
Delaney
4.0%
K. Horn
39.0%
Mullin
50.0%
Murphy
3.0%
Woods
3.0%
lv
9/18/22
M. Horn
26.68%
Lankford
49.12%
Blevins
8.74%
Delaney
2.37%
K. Horn
37.09%
Mullin
49.17%
Murphy
4.12%
Woods
0.53%
lv
9/7/22
M. Horn
29.0%
Lankford
59.0%
K. Horn
28.0%
Mullin
58.0%