Pennsylvania

Senate race

52.83BPI
50.51Poll avg.
CandidatePredicted Vote %Win Prob.
John Fetterman50.7%53%
Mehmet Oz49.3%47%

About Pennsylvania

Pennsylvania is the 5th most populated state containing significant cities such as Philadelphia, Pittsburgh, and Harrisburg, the state capital. A large proportion of the population is concentrated in the southeastern metropolitan area, where Philadelphia is. The population is estimated to be upwards of 13 million inhabitants according to the 2020 census, around 75% of which are white non-hispanic. Pennsylvania also has a high proportion, around 15.4%, of its population aged 65 or older. This places them at the 4th highest percentage in the nation. From 2014 data, approximately 50% of Pennsylvanians are Protestants and 25% Catholic. Finally, PA's GSP of around 840 billion places them at 6th in the country, although their per capita GSP would lower them to 24th. A large part of this booming economy is not only the large population, but Pennsylvania's history as one of the top energy producers in the nation. Finally, Pennsylvania is infamous as a swing state that plays a pivotal role in Presidential elections and the such.

Candidates

John Fetterman (D)

Image of John Fetterman Source: Fetterman for PA

Dr. Mehmet Oz (R)

Image of Mehmet Oz Source: Doctor Oz for Senate

Fetterman is known for his signature outfit of Carhartt sweatshirts and gym shorts, his large 6-foot-8-inch frame, and a knack for appealing to white blue-collar workers that other recent democratic candidates have lacked.

Oz brings his own outspoken reputation to this race as he has become a household name via his daytime television show Dr. Oz.

Primaries

Fetterman, the current Lieutenant Governor, gained national attention when he won the democratic primary over establishment-backed candidate Conor Lamb by over thirty percentage points.

Oz emerged from his republican primary contest with moderate Dave McCormick with a narrow victory, propelled by his coveted Trump-endorsement.

Issues & controversies

This race has certainly had it’s fair share of controversy. A large point of contention is Fetterman’s claim that Oz, a longtime resident of New Jersey, is a “carpetbagger.” Oz refutes this claim saying he grew up just South of Philadelphia. Another factor in this race has been Fetterman’s health ever since he suffered a stroke just days before the primary election. One of the largest policy issues influencing this race is abortion. While Fetterman has pledged to protect women’s reproductive rights, Oz has stated that he is “100% pro-life.”

Campaign ads

Chance of winning over time

We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.

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Recent polls

Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.