Missouri
Senate race
| 43.49 | BPI |
|---|---|
| 43.69 | Poll avg. |
| Candidate | Predicted Vote % | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Trudy B. Valentine | 43.7% | 21% |
| Eric Schmitt | 56.3% | 79% |
About Missouri
Missouri consistently supports a Republican agenda and has voted red in presidential elections going back to 2000. According to the PEW Research Center, 83% of the state identifies as a practicing christian, 47% of that is represented by evangelical christians. Non christian faiths make up less than 1% of the state’s population.
Candidates
Trudy Busch Valentine (D)
Source: Trudy Bush Valentine for Senate
Eric Schmitt (R)
Source: Eric Schmitt's Twitter
Busch Valentine aims to fight against systemic issues such as the opioid epidemic as well as obstructions to women’s rights and healthcare.
The attorney general of Missouri since 2019, Schmitt has openly opposed Biden and is a strong proponent of the America First Agenda.
Primaries
Busch Valentine took the democratic primary by over 18,000 votes against competitor Lucas Kunce. Kunce served in the Marine Corps from 2007-2020 but Busch Valentine’s nursing experience and degree in pastoral studies earned her the spot on the ballot.
Schmitt took the republican primary with a sizable lead of over 100,000 votes against Vickey Hartzler. Hartzler currently represents Missouri's 4th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives.
Issues & controversies
Abortion is expected to be an extremely important issue in this election, with Eric Schmitt being responsible for enforcing Missouri's current abortion ban, which has no exceptions unless the life of the mother is at risk, and Busch Valentine pledging to work to codify the right to abortion into federal law.
Campaign ads
Chance of winning over time
We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
Recent polls
Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.
lv
11/7/22
Busch Valentine
40.0%
Schmitt
55.0%
lv
11/1/22
Busch Valentine
42.3%
Schmitt
53.3%
Dine
2.1%
lv
10/25/22
Busch Valentine
42.0%
Schmitt
51.0%
Dine
2.0%
Venable
1.0%
lv
8/25/22
Busch Valentine
40.0%
Schmitt
51.0%
Dine
1.0%
Venable
1.0%
lv
8/16/22
Busch Valentine
38.0%
Schmitt
49.0%
Busch Valentine
31.0%
Schmitt
44.0%
Wood
10.0%
lv
4/28/22
Busch Valentine
37.0%
Greitens
46.0%
Busch Valentine
32.0%
Schmitt
50.0%
Busch Valentine
33.0%
Hartzler
49.0%
lv
3/13/22
Kunce
45.1%
Greitens
46.0%
Kunce
40.1%
Schmitt
54.9%
Kunce
38.7%
Hartzler
56.2%
Sifton
45.0%
Greitens
45.2%
Sifton
39.5%
Schmitt
54.4%
Sifton
37.2%
Hartzler
56.7%
lv
12/17/21
Kunce
26.0%
Greitens
34.0%
Kunce
16.0%
Hartzler
23.0%
Kunce
17.0%
Long
16.0%
Kunce
23.0%
Schmitt
28.0%
Sifton
26.0%
Greitens
39.0%
Sifton
17.0%
Hartzler
22.0%
Sifton
12.0%
Long
13.0%
Sifton
18.0%
Schmitt
23.0%
lv
4/8/21
Sifton
42.0%
Greitens
49.0%
Sifton
39.0%
Schmitt
51.0%
Nixon
44.0%
Greitens
48.0%
Nixon
42.0%
Schmitt
50.0%
lv
1/12/21
Kander
44.0%
Blunt
45.0%