Florida
Senate race
48.54 | BPI |
---|---|
45.82 | Poll avg. |
Candidate | Predicted Vote % | Win Prob. |
---|---|---|
Val Demings | 46.0% | 26% |
Marco Rubio | 54.0% | 74% |
About Florida
Florida is a peninsula in the South Eastern United States, bordered by Georgia and Alabama in the north. Florida is estimated to be comprised of a mostly non-Hispanic white population, with this demographic describing 76.9% of the residents in Florida. At the endpoint of the so-called Bible Belt, it's estimated that 70% of Floridians identify as Christian.
Candidates
Val Demings (D)
Source: Courtesy of Wikipedia
Marco Rubio (R)
Source: Courtesy of Wikipedia
Val Demings also has considerable experience in Washington D.C., though she has been in the House of Representatives for Florida’s 10th congressional district. She previously served in the Orlando Police Department for 27 years, ultimately rising to become the Orlando Police Department’s first female Chief of Police. Her platform is strongly focused on police issues, as she herself has served in the force. Val Demings has stood by police officers accused of excessive force. Val Demings participates in far more third-party organizations than Marco Rubio, and has consequently earned the endorsement of many of them.
Marco Rubio is no stranger to the Senate, having been the Florida Senate since 2010 as part of the Republican party. After dropping out of the 2016 presidential election, Marco Rubio obtained Trump’s “complete and total” endorsement for re-election in 2021. Marco Rubio has been a supporter of Trump policies, and has supported removing ObamaCare.
Primaries
There were 4 primary Democratic candidates: Val Demings, Brian Rush, William Sanchez, and Ricardo De La Fuente.
There was no Republican primary election.
Issues & controversies
Police is a heated issue in this race. Val Demings' past as a police officer has drawn both support and criticism from her colleagues. Marco Rubio has capitalized on this, publishing a campaign advertisement featuring current police officers criticizing her.
Campaign ads
Chance of winning over time
We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
Recent polls
Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.
lv
11/6/22
Demings
44.0%
Rubio
54.0%
lv
11/6/22
Demings
43.0%
Rubio
55.0%
Misigoy
1.0%
lv
11/2/22
Demings
40.0%
Rubio
49.0%
Misigoy
3.0%
lv
11/2/22
Demings
45.0%
Rubio
52.0%
lv
11/1/22
Demings
45.0%
Rubio
51.0%
lv
11/1/22
Demings
45.7%
Rubio
49.7%
lv
11/1/22
Demings
43.0%
Rubio
51.0%
rv
10/31/22
Demings
44.0%
Rubio
51.0%
lv
10/24/22
Demings
43.0%
Rubio
54.0%
lv
10/23/22
Demings
44.0%
Rubio
51.0%
Misigoy
1.0%
Demings
45.0%
Rubio
52.0%
lv
10/16/22
Demings
42.0%
Rubio
47.7%
lv
10/13/22
Demings
45.0%
Rubio
50.0%
rv
10/11/22
Demings
40.0%
Rubio
42.0%
lv
9/28/22
Demings
41.0%
Rubio
47.0%
lv
9/25/22
Demings
41.0%
Rubio
48.0%