Alaska
Senate race
| 42.34 | BPI |
|---|---|
| 60.67 | Poll avg. |
| Candidate | Predicted Vote % | Win Prob. |
|---|---|---|
| Lisa Murkowski | 59.1% | 80% |
| Kelly Tshibaka | 40.9% | 20% |
About Alaska
Alaska is a state in the North Western region of the United States. It has been a state for about 63 years now, has a population of around 736,000, and the median income is $77.8k. Around half of the population lives in the Anchorage metropolitan area, which has almost ten times the population of the next largest Alaskan city, Fairbanks. It has the highest proportional indigenous population, at around 15%, with the rest being almost entirely White. While per capita income in Alaska is one of the highest in the country, it has an equally high cost of living due to its remote nature. Its economy depends heavily on natural resource extraction, particularly oil, coal, silver, and zinc. Almost 85% of the state budget is supplied by oil revenue. It also has large tourism, logging, and fishing sectors, as well as being greatly supported by the US military bases in the region. Alaska has been republican leaning since the 1970's.
Candidates
Lisa Murkowski (R)
Source: www.murkowski.senate.gov
Kelly Tshibaka (R)
Source: Ballotpedia
Lisa Murkowski is the daughter of former Alaskan Senator Frank Murkowski and Nancy Rena. She graduated with a B.A. in economics from Georgetown in 1980 and obtained a doctorate from Willamette College of Law five years later. She was first elected to the Alaska House of Representatives before being appointed Senator by her father after he resigned. She has since been relected three times, but has never won a majority of the vote when doing so.
Kelly Tshibaka was born to Bill and Michele Hartline, an electrician and oil worker respectively. She earned a B.A. from Texas A&M in 1999 and a law degree from Harvard in 2002. She has worked as commissioner of the Alaskan Department of Administration, special assistant to the Department of Justice's Inspector General, acting inspector general at the Federal Trade Commission, and assistant inspector general and chief data officer at the United States Postal Service
Primaries
The winner of the primary with 45% of the vote was incumbent Lisa Murkowski, a Trump-opposed moderate republican, with the runner up with 39% of the vote being Kelly Tshibaka, a pro-Trump populist republican. The Democrat, Patricia Chesbro, lagged behind in a distant third place with 7% of the vote.
Issues & controversies
Major issues on which Tshibaka and Murkowski diverge are cooperation with Democrats, abortion access, education, and support for former president Trump. On her campaign website Tshibaka highlights her support for expanding oil access, deregulating the economy, supporting former president Trump, privatizing healthcare, and promoting election security as key issues that differentiate her from Murkowski. During public events she has repeatedly criticized Murkowski for voting to impeach former president Trump, working with president Joe Biden, being a DC insider, and being the second generation of Murkowski to hold the seat. Murkowski has a wider and more detailed range of policy issues and strategies, and has highlighted Tshibaka’s comparative absence and reliance on Trump’s endorsement to paint her as lacking the experience or plan necessary to be an effective senator.
Campaign ads
Chance of winning over time
We run our model twice a day. Explore how our prediction has changed over the course of the race.
Recent polls
Polls consist of polls ranked C- and above gathered by FiveThirtyEight.
lv
10/22/22
Chesbro
16.4%
Murkowski
40.8%
Tshibaka
38.9%
Kelley
3.9%
Chesbro
16.9%
Murkowski
42.2%
Tshibaka
41.0%
Murkowski
55.5%
Tshibaka
44.5%
lv
9/27/22
Chesbro
16.3%
Murkowski
41.0%
Tshibaka
38.6%
Kelley
4.2%
Chesbro
17.0%
Murkowski
42.4%
Tshibaka
40.6%
Murkowski
56.6%
Tshibaka
43.4%
lv
7/5/22
Chesbro
17.4%
Tshibaka
42.6%
Murkowski
35.3%
Darden
4.6%
Chesbro
19.6%
Tshibaka
44.7%
Murkowski
35.7%
Tshibaka
47.8%
Murkowski
52.2%
lv
4/21/22
Murkowski
55.0%
Tshibaka
45.0%
lv
3/16/22
Murkowski
49.2%
Tshibaka
50.8%
rv
3/7/22
Gray-Jackson
16.0%
Murkowski
38.0%
Tshibaka
28.0%
Thorne
4.0%
rv
10/27/21
Gray-Jackson
22.0%
Murkowski
35.0%
Palin
20.0%
Tshibaka
23.0%
Murkowski
60.0%
Tshibaka
40.0%
rv
7/21/21
Gray-Jackson
19.0%
Tshibaka
27.0%
Murkowski
36.0%
Miller
18.0%
Tshibaka
45.0%
Murkowski
55.0%
lv
5/25/21
Gross
25.0%
Tshibaka
39.0%
Murkowski
19.0%
Howe
4.0%
Gross
46.0%
Tshibaka
54.0%